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The problem
Intervention: COVID-19 lockdown measures implemented in March 2020
Who it was tested with: Maternal, neonatal and child health service users in Gauteng province, South Africa.
Children or communities are compared with a group that did not receive the intervention, or followed over years. This is the design that best separates what the intervention did from everything else that changed.
"Using Stata V.17.0 and 5% alpha, a segmented linear regression (ITS) model quantified the trends of the indicators before COVID-19 (March 2019 to February 2020) (β1), the immediate change in level due to the March 2020 lockdown (β2), the post-lockdown (March 2020 to February 2021) trend (β4) and the change in gradient from before to after the lockdown (β3)." This quasi-experimental interrupted time series design provides strong evidence for understanding the causal impact of the lockdown by comparing pre- and post-intervention periods with a defined policy change point.
Single province setting limits generalisability. Secondary data analysis may have data quality issues. Study period ends February 2021, so longer-term recovery patterns not captured. Mechanisms of disruption were noted as both supply and demand factors but not separately quantified.
Across countries and designs
6 studies · 8 countries
