Schedule-stage divergence between DTP3 and first-dose measles-containing vaccine coverage in selected Western Balkan countries
Objectives. To compare childhood vaccination coverage in Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia and assess divergence between DTP3 and later measles-containing vaccine coverage during 2019-2023. Material and methods. A retrospective comparative ecological time-trend study used WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) for DTP3, MCV1, and MCV2. Annual trends, change from the 2019 baseline to the lowest value in 2020-2021, subsequent change to 2023, and the DTP3-MCV1 difference were described. The DTP3-MCV1 difference was defined as an ecological indicator of divergence between early infant-series vaccination and later measles-vaccination contact, not as an individual dropout measure. No inferential modeling was performed because only five annual observations per indicator were available. Results. Albania maintained DTP3 coverage at 97% in 2023, while its DTP3-MCV1 difference widened from 4 to 14 percentage points. Montenegro had persistently low coverage across the selected indicators and a 57-point DTP3-MCV1 difference in 2023. North Macedonia narrowed this difference from 17 to 13 points, while Serbia narrowed it from 10 to 9 points and returned MCV2 to its 2019 value. No country reached at least 95% for both measles doses in 2023. Conclusions. DTP3 and MCV1 followed different country-level patterns during 2019-2023. Albania maintained high DTP3 coverage but showed widening DTP3-MCV1 divergence, whereas North Macedonia and Serbia showed partial narrowing, and Montenegro retained a very wide difference. These findings are descriptive and hypothesis-generating; the DTP3-MCV1 comparison is ecological and should not be interpreted as individual dropout, continuity, or causality.
Zhinzela Qyli