Peer-reviewed article
Projecting the impact of a national strategy to accelerate stunting prevention in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, using the Lives Saved Tool.
Helen Andriani, Miftahul Arsyi, Alphyyanto E Sutrisno, Alexander Waits, Nurul D Rahmawati ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study used modelling to project how Indonesia's 2018-2024 National Strategy to Accelerate Stunting Prevention would affect children under five in East Nusa Tenggara, a region with high stunting rates. The researchers analysed three scenarios using the Lives Saved Tool and data from multiple Indonesian surveys and databases. Across all scenarios, stunting prevalence was projected to decline slightly from 40% in 2018 to around 39.8% by 2028, preventing between 1,966 and 2,249 stunting cases by 2028. Breastfeeding promotion was identified as the single most impactful intervention, accounting for over half of averted cases, followed by micronutrient supplementation.
Key points
- Stunting prevalence in East Nusa Tenggara was projected to decrease modestly from 40.04% in 2018 to 39.78-39.82% by 2028 across different scenarios
- Between 1,966 and 2,249 stunting cases were projected to be averted among children under five by 2028 depending on intervention coverage
- Breastfeeding promotion was identified as the most impactful single intervention, accounting for over half of total stunting cases averted
- Multiple micronutrient supplementation and vitamin A supplementation were the next most impactful interventions after breastfeeding promotion
- The study emphasizes that comprehensive prioritization of multiple intervention strategies is needed to achieve stunting reduction targets
Limitations
This is a modelling study based on projected coverage scenarios rather than an evaluation of actual implementation outcomes. The projections depend heavily on the accuracy of underlying data sources and assumptions about intervention uptake and effectiveness, which may not reflect real-world implementation challenges or community-level variations.
Abstract
Stunting remains a critical public health issue in East Nusa Tenggara (ENT), Indonesia, with prevalence rates among the highest in the country despite national efforts to reduce its occurrence. The aim of this study was to project the impact of the 2018-2024 National Strategy to Accelerate Stunting Prevention on children under five years old in ENT, using the Lives Saved Tool. A cross-sectional approach was employed, integrating data from various sources, including the 2020 Census of Indonesia, the Global Data Lab-Area Database, the Central Bureau of Statistics Republic Indonesia, the National Socioeconomic Survey, the 2017 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey, the 2018 Basic Health Research, and the 2021 Indonesia Nutrition Status Survey. The analysis considered three scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario reflecting ENT's 2017 coverage, maintained through 2028; (2) a scenario assuming Indonesia achieves the Health Plan Action Stunting targets; and (3) a projection of stunting rates based on ENT-specific coverage. Under scenarios 1 and 2, the prevalence of stunting was projected to decrease from 40.04% in 2018 to 39.82% and 39.78%, respectively, by 2028, with scenario 3 reflecting a similar trend. The findings revealed a sharp increase in the number of stunting cases averted among children under five years old between 2017 and 2021, followed by a more gradual decline, culminating in the 2028 projections: 2,249 children (scenario 2), 2,130 children (scenario 3), and 1,966 children (scenario 1). Breastfeeding promotion emerged as the most impactful intervention, accounting for over half of the total stunting cases averted under both Indonesia-wide and ENT-specific coverage scenarios. This was followed by interventions such as multiple micronutrient supplementation and vitamin A supplementation. The study highlights that reducing the prevalence of stunting among children requires a comprehensive prioritization of intervention strategies. The implementation of breastfeeding promotion, combined with appropriate complementary feeding practices, is expected to contribute significantly to achieving the sustainable development goal targets.
Findings the Hub has extracted
Each claim below is labelled by its type of design and links back to this report.
Problem
High prevalence of stunting among children under five years old in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
- Intervention
- National Strategy to Accelerate Stunting Prevention (2018-2024) with emphasis on breastfeeding promotion, complementary feeding, and micronutrient supplementation
- Population
- Children under five years old in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
Key finding
Stunting prevalence projected to decrease by only 0.26-0.34 percentage points over 10 years (from 40.04% to 39.78-39.82%)