Peer-reviewed article
Estimating the impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in Benin: A mathematical modelling study.
Sena V Alohoutade, Rachel Hounsell, Codjo Dandonougbo, Rock Aikpon, Jules Degila et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This mathematical modelling study estimates how the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine would reduce malaria cases and deaths in children under five in Benin over 10 years. The model projects a 40% reduction in clinical cases and deaths when the vaccine is introduced at coverage levels matching routine DTP3 vaccination, combined with continued use of insecticidal nets. However, the study warns that if vaccine introduction leads to reduced net use, the benefits could be partially or completely lost.
Key points
- Combination of childhood malaria vaccination at DTP3-coverage levels plus current net use is projected to reduce malaria clinical cases and deaths by 40% among children under five from 2025 to 2034
- Malaria remains the leading cause of death in children under five in Benin
- The vaccine is expected to avert clinical and severe malaria cases and serve as an additional control tool
- A 1.5-fold decrease in net use is projected to increase malaria burden and offset vaccine benefits
- The potential unintended consequence of reduced net usage could undermine the gains from vaccination
Limitations
This is a mathematical modelling study based on projections and assumptions, not empirical data from actual vaccine implementation. It does not include real-world implementation results, actual coverage rates achieved, or behavioural responses to vaccine introduction in Benin.
Abstract
Malaria constitutes a major public health burden in sub-Saharan Africa. It remains a key health concern and the leading cause of death in children under five in Benin. Since October 2021, the World Health Organization has recommended the use of malaria vaccines for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in children living in malaria endemic areas, prioritizing areas of moderate and high transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. However, with the exception of Ghana, there is a scarcity of studies modelling the potential impact of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in the context of West Africa. A compartmental mathematical model was developed to estimate clinical and severe malaria cases averted in children under five with the primary series of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in Benin. Over a period of 10 years, scenarios involving vaccine introduction at different coverage levels alongside the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets were modelled to assess the impact of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine on malaria transmission. The combination of childhood malaria vaccination at a coverage similar to that of the third dose of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis (DTP3) vaccine, along with the current use of nets, is projected to result in a 40% reduction in malaria clinical cases and deaths among children under five years old, compared to using nets alone, from 2025 to 2034. However, if the introduction of a malaria vaccine has the unintended consequence of decreased net use, cumulative benefits may be offset. A 1.5-fold decrease in the use of nets is projected to result in an increase in malaria burden. This modelling exercise concludes that childhood vaccination is expected to avert clinical and severe cases of malaria and is an additional tool to advance malaria control efforts in Benin but potential unintended consequences of a reduction in net usage may reduce these gains.
Findings the Hub has extracted
Each claim below is labelled by its type of design and links back to this report.
Problem
High burden of malaria in children under five in Benin, a leading cause of death in this age group
- Intervention
- Introduction of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine at childhood immunisation programs (DTP3 coverage levels) combined with long-lasting insecticidal nets
- Population
- Children under five in Benin
Key finding
40% reduction in malaria clinical cases and deaths among children under five when vaccine is introduced at DTP3-equivalent coverage alongside current net use over 2025-2034
Alohoutade et al. · PubMed (US National Library of Medicine) · 8 May 2026