The lost foundations: Projected trajectories linking COVID-19-related school readiness losses to later academic achievement.

Key points

• 3,760 children from public preschools in Uruguay were followed from ages 4-5 to age 8
• COVID-19-related developmental losses in cognition and motor skills predicted lower mathematics and reading scores in third grade
• Effects were small (less than 0.10 standard deviations) but statistically significant
• No evidence that pandemic-related losses widened socioeconomic achievement gaps
• Study used the Child Development Inventory for early assessment and national third-grade assessment for later outcomes

Limitations

The study relies on simulation and projection methods to estimate what would have occurred without the pandemic, rather than a randomised comparison. The effects observed are small in magnitude, which limits practical significance despite statistical significance.

Abstract

This study examined whether developmental losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic predicted later academic performance. Participants were 3,760 children enrolled in public preschools in Uruguay, assessed with the Child Development Inventory at ages 4 and 5 (2019-2020) and later with the national third-grade assessment (2023). The sample was 51.5% female, 48.5% male, 83.6% White, with the remainder identifying as other racial/ethnic groups, mean age 8.53 years (SD = 0.50). Simulating what would have occurred if the pandemic had not affected development, results suggested that children would have achieved higher mathematics and reading scores if their cognitive and motor development had not been affected. Effects were small (<0.10 SD) but statistically significant, with no evidence of widening socioeconomic gaps.