Peer-reviewed article

Divergent fertility responses to cyclones and floods: a mixed-methods study from rural Bangladesh.

Khandaker Jafor Ahmed, Yan Tan, Dianne Rudd · 14 Sept 2026

Abstract

Over the past decade, Bangladesh has experienced substantial demographic change alongside increasing climate-related disruption. This study examines the links between extreme climatic events and fertility among married Bangladeshi women of childbearing age who already have children, focusing on how cyclones and floods relate to fertility behaviour in cyclone- and flood-prone villages. A mixed-methods design was used, drawing on 544 household surveys, 74 in-depth interviews with women, 10 focus group discussions with men, and 8 key informant interviews. Comparing two ecologically distinct sites allowed examination of how communities experience and respond to different hazards. The findings indicate divergent fertility patterns by hazard type. In the cyclone-prone site, physical destruction, displacement, and disrupted health-care access were associated with lower fertility. In the flood-prone site, recurrent inundation, reliance on children's labour, and constrained contraceptive access were associated with higher fertility. Socio-demographic factors, including education, age at marriage, and contraceptive access, were also strongly associated with fertility behaviour. Households in the cyclone-prone area showed greater livelihood vulnerability and lower fertility, whereas those in the flood-prone area showed higher fertility alongside elevated child mortality and a marked preference for sons, who were perceived as better able to assist in disaster recovery. These results suggest that extreme climatic events are associated with differentiated fertility responses, shaped by socio-demographic context, and point to the value of integrating reproductive health services into disaster risk reduction. The study highlights the intersection of climate change, socio-demographic factors, and reproductive health and offers evidence on how hazard-type conditions fertility responses, with implications for climate adaptation and population health policy in climate-vulnerable regions such as Bangladesh.