Peer-reviewed article

Climate-Induced Agricultural Productivity Shocks Undermine Child Nutritional Outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria

Mulubrhan Amare, Bedru Balana · 17 Mar 2026

Abstract

Climatic change threatens agricultural productivity and food security of smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa, yet evidence on how climate-induced declines in agricultural productivity affect child nutrition remains limited. By merging nationally representative household-level panel data with long-term changes in temperate and precipitation, and using two-stage fixed effects econometric models, we examined the effect of climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks on child nutritional indicators – (height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and stunting. We exploit exogenous variation in rainfall and temperature to address potential endogeneity. The results show that climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks significantly reduce HAZ and WAZ and increase stunting. Households with limited market access and lower education levels experience larger negative effects. The main pathway operates through reductions in household food production for own consumption, a mechanism particularly relevant in low- and middle-income households. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions including climate-smart agriculture to enhance smallholder resilience. Complementary investments in market infrastructure and human capital can help mitigate the adverse effects of climatic shocks. This study contributes to the literature by linking climate-induced productivity shocks to child nutrition, identifying plausible pathways, and providing recommendations on building resilient food systems to address the vulnerability of smallholders to the adverse effects of climate shocks.