Peer-reviewed article
Drivers of child marriages for girls: A prospective study in a low-income African setting
Rachel C. Kidman, Etienne Breton, James Mwera, Andrew Zulu, Jere Richard Behrman et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This longitudinal study from rural Malawi examines why girls marry before age 18, using survival analysis on prospective data. The research finds that 26% of girls in the sample marry before age 18. Three factors consistently predict early marriage: girls lagging in school, weaker community disapproval of child marriage, and knowledge of the law. Girls themselves report high autonomy in deciding whether to marry, suggesting they are active agents in these decisions rather than entirely passive victims.
Key points
- 26% of girls in the sample marry before age 18
- Girls who lag in school have significantly higher rates of child marriage than peers at or near grade level
- Child marriage rates are lower when caregivers perceive community disapproval of child marriage
- Knowledge of the law shows a surprising positive association with child marriage risk
- Girls report high decision-making autonomy regarding marriage decisions
Limitations
The study does not explain why knowledge of the law is positively associated with early marriage, which is counterintuitive. The research is limited to rural Malawi and may not generalise to other settings.
Abstract
Child marriage has adverse consequences for young girls. Cross-sectional research has highlighted several potential drivers of early marriage. We analyse drivers of child marriage using longitudinal data from rural Malawi, where rates of child marriage are among the highest in the world despite being illegal. Estimates from survival models show that 26% of girls in our sample marry before age 18. Importantly, girls report high decision-making autonomy vis-à-vis the decision to marry. We use multivariate Cox proportional hazard models to explore the role of 1) poverty and economic factors, 2) opportunity or alternatives to marriage, 3) social norms and attitudes, 4) knowledge of the law and 5) girls' agency. Only three factors are consistently associated with child marriage. First, related to opportunities outside marriage, girls lagging in school at survey baseline have significantly higher rates of child marriage than their counterparts who were at or near grade level. Second, related to social norms, child marriage rates are significantly lower among respondents whose caregivers perceive that members of their community disapprove of child marriage. Third, knowledge of the law has a positive coefficient, a surprising result. These findings are aligned with the growing qualitative literature describing contexts where adolescent girls are more active agents in child marriages.