Peer-reviewed article
Two horizons, one burden: estimating lifetime and decade-long medical costs of childhood obesity in Kazakhstan
Berik Koichubekov, Khamida Abdikadirova, Nazgul Omarbekova, Gulzat Zhunussova, Azamat Kharin ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-sonnet-5-5This study uses a computer model to estimate the direct medical costs of childhood overweight and obesity in Kazakhstan. It follows children aged 5–9 years in 2024 through later age groups and weight states (normal weight, overweight, obesity). The average lifetime medical cost is about 96,996 KZT (USD 206) per child, or about 194 billion KZT (USD 413 million) nationally for that cohort. The authors also test hypothetical cuts in childhood obesity of 5% and 10%. They conclude that prevention in early life could save money and should be prioritised in national health policy.
Key points
- Average discounted lifetime cost per child was 96,996.26 KZT (USD 206.37).
- The national lifetime financial impact for the 2024 cohort aged 5–9 years was 194 billion KZT (USD 413 million).
- Cumulative discounted direct healthcare spending for 2024–2035 reached 128.72 billion KZT (USD 273.9 million), with about 71% attributable to obesity.
- The base-case model likely underestimates cost: allowing adult costs to vary with age raised estimates by up to 13.6%.
- In the scenarios, reducing childhood obesity prevalence by 5% and 10% lowered lifetime burden by 4.8% and 9.4%.
Limitations
This is a modelling study based on assumptions, normative costs from national protocols and tariffs, and transition probabilities reconstructed from repeated cross-sectional data. It cannot show actual spending or the real effect of any prevention programme, since the policy scenarios are hypothetical. The abstract also does not cover indirect costs or wider well-being outcomes.
Abstract
Objective To estimate the lifetime and cumulative direct medical burden associated with childhood overweight and obesity in Kazakhstan using a dynamic age-structured modeling approach. Methods A dynamic age-structured Markov cohort model was developed to simulate the progression of children aged 5–9 years through successive age groups and weight states (normal weight, exclusive overweight, and obesity). Transition probabilities were reconstructed using a synthetic cohort approach based on repeated cross-sectional prevalence data and were calibrated to reproduce observed epidemiological patterns. State-specific annual direct medical costs were estimated using a normative costing approach based on national clinical protocols and tariffs. Lifetime burden was calculated as the discounted sum of future medical costs (3% discount rate). Furthermore, cumulative short-term was estimated for the period 2024–2035. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and structural scenario analysis were conducted to assess model robustness. Policy scenarios examined the impact of reducing childhood obesity prevalence by 5 and 10%. Results The average discounted lifetime cost per child was 96,996.26 KZT (USD 206.37), resulting in a total national lifetime financial impact of 194 billion KZT (USD 413 million) for the 2024 cohort of children aged 5–9 years. Over the 2024–2035 horizon, cumulative discounted direct healthcare expenditure reached 128.72 billion KZT (USD 273.9 million), with approximately 71% attributable to obesity. Sensitivity analysis showed that model results were most responsive to parameters related to obesity prevalence and costs. Structural scenarios indicated that the base-case model likely underestimates cost, with age-varying adult costs increasing estimates by up to 13.6%. Policy scenarios demonstrated that a 5 and 10% reduction in childhood obesity prevalence could reduce lifetime burden by 4.8 and 9.4%, respectively. Conclusion Childhood obesity imposes a substantial and persistent economic impact on Kazakhstan's healthcare system. Preventive interventions targeting obesity in early life may yield significant long-term cost savings and should be prioritized in national health policy.