Peer-reviewed article
Adolescent marriage, maternity, and limited access to education in 106 countries: Bayesian analysis of prevalence, trend, and prediction
Bayuh Asmamaw Hailu, Joseph Beyene ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study analyzed data from 386 datasets across 106 countries to measure adolescent child marriage, early childbirth, and school exclusion from 1990 to 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean had the highest rates of child marriage and early motherhood. While these harmful practices generally declined from 1990 to 2023, some countries have seen increases in recent years. Projections to 2030 suggest most countries will maintain current rates, though progress toward SDG targets remains at risk.
Key points
- Analysis covered 1,292,258 adolescent girls across 106 countries using 386 datasets
- Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean showed high prevalence of child marriage and early childbirth
- Overall decline in adolescent marriage and maternity from 1990 to 2023, but recent increases observed in some countries
- Projections for 2025-2030 indicate most countries will have stable rates with changes expected in some
- Disparities in outcomes underscore ongoing public health challenges threatening SDG targets
Limitations
This is a prevalence and trend analysis study without evaluation of specific interventions, so it cannot determine what strategies or programmes are most effective in reducing adolescent marriage, maternity, or school exclusion. The analysis is based on secondary data and does not explore the causal mechanisms or contextual factors driving the trends observed.
Abstract
Effectively addressing issues related to adolescent children being out of school and vulnerable to harmful practices is essential for advancing SDG 3-5. This study aimed to assess the prevalence, trends, and future projections of adolescent child vulnerability. We analyzed data from 386 datasets spanning 106 countries, encompassing 1,292,258 adolescent girls year 1990- 2023. Bayesian methods were employed to estimate prevalence, trends, and future projections. Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America & the Caribbean showed a high prevalence of child marriage and early childbirth. Overall, these indicators decreased from 1990 to 2023, but recent years have seen increases in some countries. Projections for 2025 to 2030 suggest that changes in rates will occur in some countries, while most are expected to remain stable. The disparities are in underscore ongoing public health challenges. These issues risk derailing progress towards SDG targets of eliminating harmful practices and ensuring universal access to quality education. Addressing these challenges demands coordinated efforts from countries and the global community to implement effective interventions and strategies.