Global estimates of the implications of COVID-19-related preprimary school closures for children’s instructional access, development, learning, and economic wellbeing

This study used data from before the COVID-19 pandemic to estimate what happened when early childhood care and education services closed worldwide between March 2020 and February 2021. About 167 million preprimary-age children lost access to these services. The researchers calculated that this led to massive losses in instruction time, developmental progress, and future earnings. The effects were predicted to be worst in poorer countries, widening global inequality in child outcomes.

Key points

• 19.01 billion person-days of early childhood care and education instruction were lost globally
• 10.75 million additional children fell behind in early development due to ECCE closures
• 14.18 million grades of learning were lost by the time affected children reached adolescence
• USD 308.02 billion in present discounted value of future adult earnings was lost
• Developmental and learning losses were concentrated in low- and lower middle-income countries

Limitations

This is a simulation study based on pre-pandemic data rather than direct observation of actual outcomes during COVID-19 closures; it cannot account for individual variations in how families responded or how alternative care arrangements may have mitigated some losses. The study provides global estimates but cannot measure the actual realized impacts on specific children or communities.