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When One Child Is Enough: Employment Security and Fertility Decisions Across Countries

Akbar RF, Husain M, Nadia FND, Paleva FGN · 27 Jul 2026

Abstract

Abstract This study examines whether employment security influences fertility decisions across countries by introducing a multidimensional Employment Security Index that captures broader labor market conditions underlying the growing one-and-done family phenomenon. The study employs an unbalanced panel of 176 countries covering the period 2000–2024. The Employment Security Index is constructed from unemployment, youth unemployment, vulnerable employment, and female labor force participation using World Bank data. The relationship is estimated using a two-way fixed-effects model with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors, complemented by robustness tests and heterogeneity analyses across income groups and geographical regions. Stronger employment security is positively and significantly associated with higher fertility after controlling for macroeconomic and demographic characteristics. The findings remain robust across lagged specifications, alternative samples, exclusion of the COVID-19 period, and alternative employment security measures. The positive association is particularly evident in upper-middle- and high-income countries and varies across geographical regions, highlighting substantial institutional heterogeneity. This study extends population economics by conceptualizing employment security as a multidimensional construct rather than relying on individual labor market indicators. It also provides one of the largest global longitudinal assessments of the employment–fertility relationship, offering new evidence that labor market stability constitutes an important economic foundation of contemporary fertility decline and the increasing prevalence of one-child family formation. JEL Classification: J13; J21; J64