Peer-reviewed article
Dengue dynamics: A holistic predictive model considering epidemic, vaccination, and environmental factors.
Wenru Wang, Hilal Atasoy, Yao Yao, Miklos Vasarhelyi, Henrique Tajiri et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study used a predictive model to evaluate how dengue vaccination and environmental factors affect disease control in São Paulo, Brazil. The TAK-003 vaccine was introduced for children aged 10-14 in 2024, and modelling showed it reduced reported cases, unreported cases, and deaths compared to no vaccination. However, only 30% of the target age group received vaccination, suggesting coverage needs to expand for better epidemic control. The model indicates the vaccine could be effective in long-term disease management strategies.
Key points
- TAK-003 vaccination reduced both reported and unreported dengue cases in São Paulo
- Vaccination also reduced the number of dengue deaths
- Only 30% vaccination coverage was achieved in the target group (children aged 10-14)
- Expanded vaccination coverage is needed for more effective epidemic control
- Modelling suggests TAK-003 vaccine can be effective in long-term dengue control strategies
Limitations
The document describes a predictive model simulation rather than real-world outcomes from implemented vaccination, so actual effectiveness in practice may differ from projections. The study does not provide detail on the specific environmental factors considered or how other community interventions might complement vaccination.
Abstract
This research applied a predictive model to analyse the role that vaccination and community factors play in controlling the dengue virus. The study considers epidemiological and environmental data from the city of São Paulo (Brazil) after the start of the TAK-003 vaccination protocol in children aged 10-14 in 2024. The simulation of this study showed that the vaccination policy in São Paulo reduced reported and unreported cases, in addition to reducing the number of deaths. However, only 30% of the target group was covered by current vaccination distributions, indicating the need to expand vaccination coverage for more effective epidemic control. The results also indicate that the TAK-003 vaccine can be effective in long-term strategies. The proposed system dynamics model was used to simulate the different outcomes of the dengue epidemic in two scenarios. The first scenario simulated the development of dengue without vaccination, while the second simulated the results with the current vaccination strategy.