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When Risk Factors Compete: A Machine Learning Approach to Identifying Antecedents of Adolescent Delinquency Across Domains, Development, and Gender

Cashman MR, Andershed A, Andershed H, Bood F, Landstedt E et al. · 15 Oct 2026

Abstract

Risk factors for adolescent delinquency have been identified at multiple levels, from individual dispositions through family and school processes to ecological context, yet their relative importance remains unestablished. Which factors carry greatest weight, and when, has not been tested in simultaneous modelling. This study assessed 111 predictors spanning five domains across four developmental periods, predicting self-reported delinquency in mid-adolescence. Predictors were teacher- and parent-reported and the outcome adolescent self-reported. Participants were a Swedish population-based cohort followed from early childhood into adolescence (N = 2,121; 46.6% girls; mean age 3.86 years at baseline; 97.8% born in Sweden). Using machine learning techniques, random forests were estimated across the full span (AUC = .787, 95% CI [.747, .826]) and at each developmental period for boys and girls. Parent-rated conduct problems ranked among the leading predictors at every period, while caregiver emotional functioning carried greatest weight in early and late childhood before being displaced by dispositional and behavioral characteristics. Parent-rated social competence was the strongest protective factor. Associations were threshold-shaped, with the shift to elevated risk falling within the ordinary range of the measures. Gender differences in ranking were not supported by formal testing, which was low-powered.