Peer-reviewed article

Food price shocks, household livelihood diversification, and early childhood development

Khadijat Busola Amolegbe, Ridwan Mukaila · 15 Sept 2026

Abstract

Food price shocks pose a persistent threat to household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa, with potentially lasting consequences for human capital accumulation. This study explored the association between early-life exposure to food price shocks and developmental outcomes among children aged 4–6 years and examined whether household livelihood diversification moderated these relationships. The developmental outcomes include literacy, numeracy, executive functioning, and socioemotional competencies, and the overall early childhood development (ECD) score is the sum of these four domains. Using Nigeria as a case study, the study combined nationally representative data from the 2023/2024 General Household Survey with monthly state-level food price data for yellow maize and eggs, two nutritionally important and highly volatile commodities. Retrospective exposure measures were then constructed capturing cumulative, average, and age-specific price shocks during children's first years of life. The study found that maize price shocks were negatively associated with cognitive outcomes, particularly numeracy and executive functioning, while egg price shocks were positively associated with literacy and total ECD scores, possibly reflecting improved home consumption of eggs among producing households facing higher prices. Household livelihood diversification into non-agricultural activities significantly moderated the adverse relationship between maize price and child development outcomes, though this protective association interacted negatively with egg price shocks in certain contexts. Lagged exposure models identified ages two and four as particularly sensitive developmental windows. These findings underscore the importance of food price stabilisation policies and livelihood diversification strategies as complementary instruments for protecting early childhood development outcomes in low-income settings.