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Methods of adjustment for public health and social measures in post–licensure vaccine studies in children in sub–Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Ndeketa L, Vaselli NM, Pitzer VE, Dodd PJ, Hungerford D et al. · 2 Apr 2026

Abstract

Background: Post–licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies provide evidence on how vaccines perform under routine programme conditions in the real world. In sub–Saharan Africa (SSA), vaccine introductions frequently coincide with concurrent public health and social measures that may influence disease risk and transmission. Failure to account for these concurrent interventions may affect the interpretation of vaccine effects. Methods We conducted a systematic review of post–licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies conducted in children under five years of age in SSA. Electronic databases were searched for peer–reviewed studies published between January 2000 and December 2019. Eligible studies used observational designs to estimate vaccine effectiveness or population–level impact. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed methodological quality using Joanna Briggs Institute tools. We examined study designs, vaccines evaluated, outcomes assessed, and whether public health and social measures (PHSMs) were measured or adjusted for. A narrative synthesis was undertaken. In addition, we conducted a meta–analysis for rotavirus and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines where we explored the heterogeneity in individual–level effectiveness estimates where designs and outcomes were comparable. Results Sixty–four studies met the inclusion criteria, covering eight vaccine–preventable diseases. Rotavirus vaccines were most frequently evaluated, followed by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. Case-control and ecological designs were most common, while cohort and time–series analyses were less frequently used. None of the included studies collected, reported, or adjusted for PHSMs such as nutrition, WASH, or access to healthcare. The implications of this omission varied by pathogen. Rotavirus vaccine effectiveness estimates from comparable individual–level designs were consistent across settings, with no evidence of between–study heterogeneity. Pneumococcal vaccine effectiveness estimates showed substantial heterogeneity, which appeared to reflect differences in outcome definitions, host risk profiles, and study context. Estimates for other vaccines were generally protective in direction, although the magnitude and precision varied across studies. Conclusions Post–licensure vaccine effectiveness and impact studies in SSA rarely account for concurrent PHSMs. The consequences of this omission are not uniform across vaccines. For some pathogens, effectiveness estimates appear robust to unmeasured contextual change, while for others they are highly sensitive to outcome choice and setting. Future evaluations should prioritise systematic measurement of key PHSMs and consider study designs that better account for time–varying context. Strengthening routine data systems to capture these factors is essential for generating interpretable evidence to inform immunisation policy.