Peer-reviewed article

Trends in Adolescent Marriage in India, 2015–2021: A Nationally Representative Cross-Sectional Study

Jyotishman Mukhopadhyay · 30 Sept 2026

Abstract

BackgroundAdolescent marriage remains a public health and social concern in India, despite legal provisions and policy efforts. While overall child marriage has declined, marriage during late adolescence (18–19 years) continues to affect girls with implications for education, fertility, and health outcomes. Understanding trends and socio-demographic determinants is essential in context of evolving legal and programmatic frameworks. AimTo examine trends in adolescent marriage in India during 2015 to 2021 and to compare patterns and determinants between National Family Health Survey rounds 4 and 5. MethodThis cross-sectional analytical study utilized nationally representative data from NFHS 4 and 5. Descriptive statistics were used to estimate prevalence. Associations between marital status and socio-demographic variables were assessed using chi-square and Cochran–Mantel–Haenszel statistics. Multivariate logistic regressions were applied to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals. ResultA total of 120,259 and 122,874 adolescents from NFHS 4 and 5 were analyzed, respectively. Adolescent marriage declined significantly from 26.8% to 23.3% between surveys (p < 0.001). Marriage was strongly age-graded, peaking at 19 years, indicating postponement rather than elimination. Higher odds of marriage were associated with increasing age, lower educational attainment, economic disadvantage, and rural residence. Secondary and higher education demonstrated protective effect. ConclusionsAlthough adolescent marriage in India has declined between 2015 and 2021, it remains concentrated in late adolescence and is influenced by enduring socio-economic and cultural inequalities. Multi-sectoral, context-specific interventions beyond legislative reform are required to achieve sustained reductions.