Peer-reviewed article
Beyond Conflict Presence: Cumulative Armed Insecurity and Childhood Stunting in Nigeria
Tersoo Solomon Shaminja, Merlyn Barkhuizen ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-sonnet-5This study looked at how armed conflict in Nigeria relates to child stunting, using national health survey data alongside two conflict-event databases. It found that nearly 40% of children under five were stunted, with much higher rates in the North-West than the South-South. The frequency of conflict events, rather than the number of deaths or a simple presence/absence measure, was more closely linked to stunting. The relationship was complex and depended on how conflict was measured and which data source was used. The authors suggest nutrition programmes should target areas with the highest combined insecurity and stunting levels.
Key points
- Weighted national stunting prevalence was 39.1%, ranging from 52.4% in the North-West to 17.9% in the South-South
- Higher frequency of ACLED-recorded conflict events was linked to lower odds of stunting (AOR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76-0.97, p=.012)
- Frequency of conflict events was a better predictor of stunting than fatality counts
- Cumulative conflict exposure measures were not better than simple presence/absence measures
- Conflict experience differed significantly across Nigeria's geopolitical zones
Limitations
The study is cross-sectional, so it cannot show that conflict causes stunting, only that they are statistically associated; it also relies on geocoded matching of conflict events to survey locations, which may introduce measurement error.
Abstract
Background: Stunting remains a major public health challenge in Nigeria, affecting 40% of children according to the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS, 2024) amid persistent insecurity orchestrated by Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency, farmer-herder conflicts, and banditry. However, much of the existing studies treat conflict exposure as a binary condition, overlooking important differences in event frequency and fatality intensity and their potentially distinct implications for child growth and development. Aims: We aimed to assess whether cumulative conflict exposure, captured by event frequency and fatality intensity, better explains childhood stunting in Nigeria than measures of conflict presence alone. Methods: This cross-sectional analysis used the 2024 NDHS dataset (children under 59 months = 9,410), ACLED events (2009-2025 = 73,147), and UCDP GED (1990-2025 = 8,255) as data sources. Conflict events were geocoded to NDHS clusters using 5 km, 10 km, and 50 km buffers. The frequency and intensity of conflict exposure were estimated separately and jointly using weighted cluster-robust logistic regression. Model performance for cumulative exposure versus binary presence/absence exposure was assessed using AIC, BIC, and McFadden's pseudo-R². Results: Weighted prevalence of stunting was 39.1%, with the highest rate observed in the North-West at 52.4% and the lowest in the South-South at 17.9% (p < .001). Conflict experience also differed significantly across geopolitical zones based on both ACLED and UCDP GED indicators (p < .001). The adjusted result showed a significant negative correlation between higher frequency of ACLED events and stunting (AOR = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.76–0.97, p = .012). Overall, the findings indicate that the relationship between armed insecurity and stunting varies by the frequency, intensity, and cumulative nature of conflict exposure. Conclusions: Insecurity involving conflict was correlated with childhood stunting, although this was context-specific, depending on how conflict was captured and what data were utilised. Frequency was a better indicator than fatality, and cumulative metrics were not superior to non-cumulative indicators of conflict. Based on this study’s results, we recommend that nutrition interventions focus on regions experiencing the highest levels of insecurity and childhood stunting.