Peer-reviewed article
Trends and spatial distribution of pediatric second-dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage: a temporal analysis, Brazil, 2022-2023.
Kassya Fernanda Freire Lima, Marta Silva de Santana, Girlane Caroline Pereira Santos, Pablo Nascimento Cruz, Thaysa Goes Trinta Abreu et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study analyzed trends in COVID-19 second-dose vaccination coverage among Brazilian children aged 5 to 11 years during 2022-2023. Using data from the Ministry of Health platform, researchers found that while overall vaccination coverage remained relatively stable, there was significant geographical variation across regions and states. The Northern region showed rising vaccination trends, while the Southeast region declined. The analysis reveals that vaccination efforts stalled after initial increases in 2022.
Key points
- Overall vaccination coverage declined slightly by 8.30% per month on average, but this masked major regional differences
- The Northern region increased vaccination by 5.76% monthly, with Acre (23.42%) and Amazonas (18.26%) showing the strongest gains
- The Southeast region declined by 8.30% monthly, with Rio de Janeiro, Pará, and Mato Grosso do Sul showing particular drops
- Fourteen states (51.9%) maintained stable vaccination trends over the period
- Momentum peaked in 2022 but then decelerated and plateaued during 2023
Limitations
This is a descriptive temporal and spatial analysis using administrative data from one source; it cannot explain the causes of regional variation or assess factors influencing vaccination uptake differences. The study does not investigate barriers to vaccination or evaluate any specific intervention.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the trend and spatial distribution of pediatric second-dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage among children aged 5 to 11 years in Brazil, in 2022 and 2023. METHODS: This was a time series analysis study using vaccination and target population data extracted from the Ministry of Health Vacinômetro platform. The second-dose coverage trend was estimated by joinpoint regression (segmented regression), while spatial distribution was analyzed using choropleth maps to identify regional variations between the Brazilian states. RESULTS: Average monthly percentage change (AMPC) in vaccination coverage in Brazil as a whole remained stable during the period (AMPC -8.30%), with significant geographical heterogeneity. The Northern region (AMPC 5.76%) had a rising trend, in particular in the states of Acre (AMPC 23.42%) and Amazonas (AMPC 18.26%). Falling trends were observed in the Southeast region (AMPC -8.30%) as well as in specific states, such as Mato Grosso do Sul (AMPC -4.74%), Pará (AMPC -4.71%) and Rio de Janeiro (AMPC -4.27%). Fourteen states (51.9%) had a stable trend. The time series revealed initial increase in 2022, followed by deceleration and stabilization in 2023. CONCLUSION: A significant and uneven variation in pediatric second-dose COVID-19 vaccination coverage was observed between 2022 and 2023. The results highlight the urgent need for targeted strategies to increase vaccination adherence, especially in areas with lower coverage.