What’s driving girls’ adolescent marriage decline in Rakai, Uganda? The interplay between adolescent pregnancies and social determinants, 1999 – 2018

This study analysed 20 years of data from girls aged 15-17 in Uganda to understand why adolescent marriage rates fell from 24% to 6%. Secondary education was the strongest factor protecting girls from early marriage, with educated girls being 11 times less likely to marry. The study found that reduced pregnancy rates partly explained why education protected girls from marriage, suggesting education works through multiple pathways. Both adolescent marriages and pregnancies declined significantly over the study period.

Key points

• Adolescent marriage rates declined from 24% to 6% between 1999 and 2018 in Rakai, Uganda
• Secondary schooling was strongly associated with lower marriage risk (adjusted odds ratio 0.09), meaning educated girls had substantially lower marriage rates
• Pregnancy rates also declined from 28% to 8% over the same period
• Lower pregnancy rates partially explained the protective effect of education on marriage (55% of the education effect was mediated through pregnancy reduction)
• The study emphasizes education as key to preventing adolescent marriage, while also highlighting pregnancy as an important factor in marriage decisions

Limitations

The study describes associations and mediation pathways but cannot establish definitive causation or identify all mechanisms through which education prevents marriage. The findings are specific to one community in Uganda and may not generalise to other contexts.