Peer-reviewed article
Trajectories of adolescent poly-substance use and their long-term social and economic outcomes for males from low-income backgrounds.
Francis Vergunst, Nicholas Chadi, Massimiliano Orri, Camille Brousseau-Paradis, Natalie Castellanos-Ryan et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study followed 890 males from low-income neighborhoods from age 13 into early adulthood to understand how patterns of adolescent substance use (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, illicit drugs) related to their later life outcomes. Researchers identified four groups: those who abstained, those who started using substances late, mid-adolescence, or early (by age 13). Males who started using substances early experienced significantly worse outcomes, including higher school dropout rates, more criminal convictions, lower earnings, more welfare dependence, and lower marriage rates by their 30s. The findings suggest that delaying when young people first use substances could prevent serious long-term harm.
Key points
- Early-onset poly-substance users (by age 13) were 3.0 times more likely to leave school without a diploma compared to late-onset users
- Early-onset users were 2.7 times more likely to have criminal convictions by age 24
- Early-onset users earned USD 10,185 less per year at ages 33-37 and had USD 15,790 lower household income
- Early-onset users had 1.3 times higher incidence of annual welfare receipt
- Early-onset users had 24% lower rates of marriage or cohabitation from age 18-35
Limitations
The study is observational and cannot definitively prove that early substance use causes poor outcomes, as the researchers adjusted for some but not all confounding factors (such as peer influences or community factors). The findings apply only to males from low-income backgrounds and may not generalize to females or other socioeconomic groups.
Abstract
Substance abuse is a significant public health concern that disproportionately burdens males and low-income communities. This study examined (1) longitudinal profiles of male adolescent poly-substance use and (2) their association with social and economic participation across early adulthood. Drawing on a cohort of males (n = 890) from low-income neighborhoods, we used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify profiles of poly-substance use (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, illicit drugs) from age 13-17 years. Regression models were used to link substance use profiles to high school graduation, criminal convictions, personal and household earnings, welfare receipt and partnership from age 19-37 years, obtained from administrative records. Child IQ, family adversity and behavioral problems were adjusted for. Four poly-substance use profiles were identified: abstinent (n = 128, 14.4%), late-onset (n = 412, 46.5%), mid-onset (n = 249, 28.1%), and early-onset (n = 98, 11.1%). Relative to the late-onset (reference) group, participants in the early-onset profile were 3.0 times (95%CI = 1.68-5.53) more likely to have left school without a diploma, 2.7 times (95% CI = 1.56-4.68) more likely to have a criminal conviction by age 24 years, earned 10,185 USD less (95% CI = - 15,225- - 5144) per year at age 33-37 years and had 15,790 USD lower (95% CI = - 23,378- - 8218) household income at age 33-37 years, a 1.3 times (95%CI = 1.15-1.57) higher incidence of annual welfare receipt and a 24% (95% CI = 5-40) lower incidence of marriage/cohabitation from age 18-35 years. We show that adolescent-onset poly-substance use by age 13 is associated with poor social and economic outcomes. Delaying the onset of substance use and reducing exposure to additional substance classes has potential for high societal cost savings.
Findings the Hub has extracted
Each claim below is labelled by its type of design and links back to this report.
- Intervention
- This is an observational study examining the natural variation in substance use timing and patterns, not testing an intervention
- Population
- 890 males from low-income neighborhoods, followed from age 13 to 37 years
Key finding
Early-onset poly-substance users 3.0 times more likely to leave school without diploma (95% CI: 1.68-5.53)
Vergunst et al. · PubMed (US National Library of Medicine) · 28 May 2021