Peer-reviewed article
Classification of knowledge of fertility period among adolescent girls in East Africa from 2012 to 2022: Machine learning algorithm.
Birlie AA, Gashu KD, Kasaye MD, Muluneh AA, Kassaw AK et al. ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study used machine learning to analyze data from 40,664 adolescent girls across 12 East African countries to understand what factors predict knowledge of fertility periods. Only 13% of adolescent girls studied knew when they were fertile, which puts them at risk of unplanned pregnancy. The research found that education level, exposure to family planning information, and access to health facilities were the strongest predictors of fertility knowledge. The study provides a method that could help governments and organizations design better programs to improve adolescent reproductive health.
Key points
- Only 13.22% of adolescent girls in East Africa (from 12 countries, 2012-2022) had knowledge of their fertility period
- Girls without fertility knowledge who do not use contraception face a 17% risk of unplanned pregnancy
- Education level, country, hearing about family planning, and knowledge of STIs were key factors associated with fertility knowledge
- Logistic regression achieved 82.71% accuracy and random forest achieved 83.26% accuracy in classifying fertility knowledge
- Access to health facilities and wealth index were also significant predictors of fertility knowledge
Limitations
The study is a cross-sectional analysis of secondary data and cannot establish causation. The machine learning classification approach, while useful for identifying patterns, does not directly measure the effectiveness of interventions to improve adolescent reproductive health knowledge.
Abstract
Understanding the time of the menstrual cycle would help women to avoid getting pregnant without the need for surgical, hormonal, or mechanical contraception. Women who do not use contraception and do not know when they are fertile are at a higher risk (17%) of unplanned pregnancy and abortion. Classifying knowledge of fertility periods using machine learning algorithms would help to automate decision-making, produce more precise and accurate classification, and scale up to manage big and complex datasets. Therefore, this study aimed to classify knowledge of the fertility period among adolescent girls in East Africa from 2012 to 2022 using a machine-learning algorithm. A community-based cross-sectional study design was used from 12 East African countries' DHS datasets spanning 2012-2022. The machine learning algorithms were applied to classify knowledge of the fertility period and identify its predictors using R software and Python, particularly Jupiter Notebook in Anaconda. Data cleaning, one-hot encoding, data splitting, data balancing, and ten-fold cross-validation were performed. Ten machine learning algorithms and SHAP were used to select and interpret the best model. From the 40,664 adolescent girls in East Africa, 13.22% (95% CI: 12.91, 13.54) of participants had knowledge of the fertility period. Logistic regression was found to be the best model for unbalanced training data with 74.38% of an AUC and 82.71% of an accuracy. While random forest outperformed on balanced training data, it achieved 91.12% of an AUC and 83.26% accuracy. The key determinant factors of the knowledge of the fertility period were education level, country, hearing about family planning, hearing about sexually transmitted infections, wealth index, knowledge of any method, and visiting health facilities. Governments, NGOs, policy makers, and researchers can utilize these findings to design targeted interventions for improving adolescents' reproductive health based on the identified gaps and disparities.