Peer-reviewed article
Predicting State Testing Proficiency with Preschool Assessments.
Patrick Ehrman, Robert J Duncan, Sara A Schmitt, David J Purpura ·
Summary
Written by AI, not yet AICS's view · claude-haiku-4-5-20251001This study examined which preschool skills best predict whether children will meet proficiency standards on third and fourth-grade state mathematics and reading tests. Researchers analyzed assessments of 431 children across mathematics, language, literacy, and executive function skills. Early mathematics ability and executive function skills were the strongest predictors of later proficiency in both subjects, while vocabulary was particularly important for reading proficiency.
Key points
- Early mathematics skills strongly predicted proficiency in both mathematics and ELA tests (odds ratios 1.34 to 2.32)
- Executive function skills were consistent predictors of proficiency in both subjects (odds ratios 1.23 to 1.40)
- Vocabulary skills predicted ELA proficiency (odds ratios 1.29 to 1.55) but early literacy skills alone did not
- Predictive patterns were consistent across fall, spring, and average scores measured during the preschool year
- Findings suggest multiple school readiness domains should be considered to identify children at risk of failing to reach proficiency
Limitations
This study identifies correlations between preschool skills and later test performance but does not evaluate an intervention to improve outcomes. The study is observational and cannot show whether improving specific preschool skills would causally improve later proficiency or whether it generalizes beyond the US context.
Abstract
Many children in the United States fail to meet proficiency benchmarks on mathematics and English Language Arts (ELA) tests in elementary school despite those tests being related to future outcomes. Thus, strategies are needed to identify and support children at risk for failing to reach proficiency in mathematics and ELA that consider multiple school readiness domains. The current study tested predictive relations between preschool skills and proficiency status on third and fourth-grade state tests for mathematics and ELA using data from 431 children. Three backward selection ordinal logistic regressions were run for each outcome using nine assessments covering mathematics, language, literacy, and executive function (EF) skills. Models using (a) fall scores, (b) spring scores, and (c) the average and change scores across the preschool year consistently identified early mathematics (ORs from 1.34 to 2.32) and EF (ORs from 1.23 to 1.40) as strong predictors of proficiency in both mathematics and ELA. Children's vocabulary skills (ORs from 1.29 to 1.55), but not early literacy skills, were consistently strong predictors of proficiency in ELA. Implications for policy and practice to improve children's early learning outcomes are discussed.